As sea levels rise, coastal communities in the United States will face more frequent flooding from high tides and storms, causing uninhabitable homes and migration. This demographic shift is likely to be non-uniform, with the elderly less likely to evacuate during climate disasters, leading to a potential increase in median age in affected areas.
A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projects that outmigration due to climate change could increase the median age of coastal areas by up to 10 years over the course of this century. This migration promises a generational realignment of U.S. states, with coastal regions growing older and inland areas receiving an influx of young people.
The knock-on effects of this demographic shift include lower birth rates, declining property values, and erosion of public services, creating a vicious cycle of decline in coastal communities. This demographic amplification could significantly intensify climate migration patterns, with as many as 15 million people projected to move away from coastal areas due to the age transition.
The most-affected states will be Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, while inland cities such as Nashville, Orlando, and Austin are expected to gain a significant number of people due to their lower vulnerability to flooding. However, it’s important to note that other factors, such as adaptive capacity and vulnerability, can also determine migration patterns.
The study provides insight into the demographic consequences of climate migration, emphasizing the need for both coastal and inland areas to prepare for larger demographic changes than expected. The future scale of climate migration is projected to be much larger than just the displacement of people from their homes by flooding, and appropriate measures need to be taken to address these changes.
