Increase in West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting Inevitable in 21st Century
A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change suggests that there will be widespread melting of the West Antarctic ice shelves this century, even with the most ambitious Paris Agreement climate targets. The stability of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet will be threatened by future ocean warming at three times the rate previously observed last century, with little-to-no effect expected from mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in the near term.
The study assessed ice-shelf melting under different future emissions scenarios and highlighted that even under the best-case scenario, the Amundsen Sea is projected to heat up three times faster this century than in the past, leading to concerns about the potential impact of this accelerated melting on global sea level rise.
Additional findings indicate that reducing emissions could have a positive impact post-2100, but until then, their effect is minimal. The authors also point out that while ocean melting of ice shelves is currently the leading cause of mass loss from West Antarctica, atmospheric processes may become more important in the future.
Overall, the study paints a bleak picture for the state of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, necessitating a focus on adaptation to sea-level rise and the continued mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. The urgency of these actions is underlined by the likely irreversible damage that may have already occurred to some glaciers.
It is evident that the fate of Antarctic ice shelves is intertwined with the need for global cooperation in addressing climate change, a pressing issue echoed throughout the study.
This article forms part of the GlacierHub initiative, a climate communication effort led by Ben Orlove, an anthropologist at the Columbia Climate School.
