Senior living construction starts are at a low, and project completion times are increasing, potentially leading to a future shortage of senior housing inventory. According to a recent blog post by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) and NIC MAP Vision, there were only about 1,300 senior living construction starts in the second quarter of 2024, the lowest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The average time to complete a senior living project has also risen to 29 months in 2023, up from 21 months in 2017. Unless new development accelerates significantly, the industry may fall short of projected demand by 2030.
This trend could result in a rise in occupancy across the industry, leading to increased competition for available units and potentially higher costs for residents. The lack of supply may also lead to longer wait times for placement in preferred facilities, forcing seniors to consider alternative living arrangements. With high demand and low new supply, the senior housing market is expected to become tighter, requiring strategic anticipation and operational excellence from stakeholders.
