US Health Insurance Trends: 2024-2034 – Healthcare Economist

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released projections on US health insurance levels from 2024 to 2034. According to the CBO’s estimates in the Hale et al. (2024) study:

…92.3 percent of the US population, or 316 million people, will have coverage in 2024, while 7.7 percent, or 26 million, will be uninsured. The uninsured rate is expected to increase over the next decade, reaching 8.9 percent in 2034 due to various factors such as the end of COVID-19 pandemic-related Medicaid policies, expiration of enhanced subsidies from the Affordable Care Act, and an influx of immigration starting in 2022. The largest rise in uninsured individuals will be seen among adults aged 19-44. Employment-based coverage will remain the primary source of health insurance, with Medicare enrollment growing significantly as the population ages. Marketplace enrollment is projected to hit a record high of twenty-three million people in 2025 after exceeding expectations in 2023.

The CBO projects that Medicare enrollment (in Parts A and B) will increase from 61 million in 2024 to 74 million in 2034, reflecting the aging population. Interestingly, Medicare Advantage enrollment is expected to rise from just over half of beneficiaries in 2024 to nearly two-thirds by 2034.

CBO’s estimates for health insurance levels in individuals under 65 years are based on the Health Insurance Simulation Model (HISIM2), a sophisticated utility model detailed in Hanson et al. (2023).

For more information, you can access the full study here, and the complete baseline projections here.